Posts and change notices
New analysis, and notices that a published measurement changed materially. The canonical current value of each measured fact lives in the living references; this page is what changed and when.
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How well calibrated is Polymarket 24 hours before resolution?
An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.
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How long can capital remain locked when a Polymarket market is disputed?
An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.
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How often do resolved Polymarket UMA disputes reverse the original answer?
An evidence-bound answer built from the latest validated measurement and its declared limits.
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Do the Polymarket categories that dispute most also flip most?
An evidence-bound answer built from the latest validated measurement and its declared limits.
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When Polymarket disputes a UMA resolution, the result almost never changes
On-chain measurement of Polymarket's UMA resolution disputes: of 432 resolved disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original proposal — 86% just confirmed it. Dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders. Fact/base-rate, not prediction.