Methodology

Every figure Resolution Watch publishes is a base-rate fact measured on-chain, not a prediction of any single market and never an accusation of any named entity.

Sources

Measurements come from public on-chain data (Base and Polygon) and public market metadata, read directly. Each reference page links its machine-readable dataset via isBasedOn.

Sampling and honesty rules

Where a magnitude is sample-dependent, we publish the direction as the fact and show more than one sample; we never headline a single rate. Rates carry their denominator (sample size). Counts that cannot be classified from on-chain activity are declared, not hidden in a percentage.

Freshness

Each reference shows when it was last measured (updated every run) separately from when the underlying fact last changed materially (its dateModified). A quiet day is a healthy day, not a stale one.

Free published data

The evidence behind every figure on this site is published as plain JSON, free: no key, no signup, no payment, and CORS is open, so an agent can fetch it directly. Every file carries its own generatedAt and its own caveats[] — a stale file is a stale answer, and an absent value is never a zero.

• https://dash.polym.uk/markets.json — the complete current snapshot of the decomposed market set: apparent volume, taker concentration, price band, Gamma book structure, dominant-flow wallet and resolution-risk context, per market
• https://dash.polym.uk/market-series.json — the hourly per-market series behind the sparklines
• https://dash.polym.uk/calibration.json — is Polymarket calibrated? The YES price 24h before close against the realised outcome, as a ten-bucket curve with a 95% Wilson interval per bucket, plus the Brier score and the favourite-longshot gap
• https://dash.polym.uk/uma-base-rates.json — UMA dispute base rates by category, in two samples published together because they disagree
• https://dash.polym.uk/uma-flip-rate.json — when a market is disputed at UMA, how often the answer reversed
• https://dash.polym.uk/live-disputes.json — markets that entered a UMA dispute in the recent window, each crossed with its category flip rate and a 95% Wilson interval
• https://dash.polym.uk/rules-changes.json — resolution rules that changed after the market opened, read from the UMA adapters' on-chain bulletin board on Polygon, with the vendor's own wording verbatim, the template composition that dominates any such window, and two money figures that are never added to each other
• https://dash.polym.uk/farming.json — per-wallet reward-program signals over the scanned window
• https://dash.polym.uk/storefront-demand.json — observed settlements against this product's own paid routes
• https://dash.polym.uk/llms.txt — how to read the published artifacts, and the caveats that travel with them
• https://api.polym.uk/coverage — what is and is not measured right now, with sample sizes
• https://api.polym.uk/openapi.json — the full OpenAPI document: schemas, examples, routes
• https://api.polym.uk/samples/screener — a fixed, non-live example of the screener response shape, so an agent can inspect it before paying

One product, three hosts

Resolution Watch is one product. Some of its surfaces still label themselves "Polymarket Intelligence API", "Polymarket Intel", "Polymarket Flow Intelligence" — those are descriptors for the same measurements, published by the same operator, and not separate products.

• Site: https://polym.uk — canonical living references, one URL per measured fact, with methodology and history
• Dashboard and free artifacts: https://dash.polym.uk — the published JSON the dashboard reads — free, keyless and CORS-open
• API: https://api.polym.uk — paid routes over x402 (USDC on Base), plus free coverage and OpenAPI documents

Data & API: polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json.