What the measured evidence supports

Of 754 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~313 days, only 14.2% reversed the original answer — 85.8% just confirmed it.

This answer applies only to the observed sample, measurement window, and coverage stated by the linked methodology.

Readers and agents can inspect the companion dataset, follow the public methodology, and query the API from the links below.

Interpretation should preserve the caveats attached to every used claim rather than generalize beyond available coverage.