https://polym.uk/ Measured, evidence-bound updates from Resolution Watch: new analysis and notices that a published measurement changed materially. Descriptive base-rate facts, never predictions. en Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://polym.uk/blog/how-well-calibrated-is-polymarket-24-hours-before-resolution-c1d666b2 https://polym.uk/blog/how-well-calibrated-is-polymarket-24-hours-before-resolution-c1d666b2 Mon, 07 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits. analysis https://polym.uk/blog/how-long-can-capital-remain-locked-when-a-polymarket-market-is-disputed-133d7d33 https://polym.uk/blog/how-long-can-capital-remain-locked-when-a-polymarket-market-is-disputed-133d7d33 Thu, 27 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits. https://polym.uk/blog/how-often-do-resolved-polymarket-uma-disputes-reverse-the-original-answer-850673a0 https://polym.uk/blog/how-often-do-resolved-polymarket-uma-disputes-reverse-the-original-answer-850673a0 Fri, 31 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT An evidence-bound answer built from the latest validated measurement and its declared limits. https://polym.uk/blog/do-the-polymarket-categories-that-dispute-most-also-flip-most-c94f53d3 https://polym.uk/blog/do-the-polymarket-categories-that-dispute-most-also-flip-most-c94f53d3 Thu, 30 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT An evidence-bound answer built from the latest validated measurement and its declared limits. https://polym.uk/blog/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk https://polym.uk/blog/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk Fri, 10 Jul 2026 00:00:00 GMT On-chain measurement of Polymarket's UMA resolution disputes: of 432 resolved disputes over ~208 days, only 13.9% reversed the original proposal — 86% just confirmed it. Dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders. Fact/base-rate, not prediction.