Most UMA disputes confirm — they don't reverse
Of 580 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~313 days, only 14.5% reversed the original answer — 85.5% just confirmed it.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Flip rate | Confirm rate | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.6% | 86.4% | 782 | |
| 13.6% | 86.4% | 780 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 772 | |
| 13.9% | 86.1% | 761 | |
| 14% | 86% | 759 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 754 | |
| 14.1% | 85.9% | 731 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 719 | |
| 14% | 86% | 714 | |
| 14% | 86% | 701 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 691 | |
| 14.3% | 85.7% | 687 | |
| 14.3% | 85.7% | 686 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 684 | |
| 14.4% | 85.6% | 674 | |
| 15.3% | 84.7% | 626 | |
| 15% | 85% | 621 | |
| 14.9% | 85.1% | 619 | |
| 14.6% | 85.4% | 608 | |
| 14.7% | 85.3% | 605 | |
| 14.6% | 85.4% | 602 | |
| 14.6% | 85.4% | 597 | |
| 14.9% | 85.1% | 590 | |
| 14.7% | 85.3% | 584 | |
| 14.5% | 85.5% | 580 |
Questions
When a Polymarket market is disputed at UMA, how often does the original answer get reversed?
Across 580 resolved disputes over ~313 days, only 14.5% reversed the original answer — 85.5% just confirmed it. Measured on-chain as of 2026-09-06, this is a base-rate fact, not a prediction of any single market. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
Is a UMA dispute on Polymarket a reliable signal that the outcome is wrong?
No — across 580 resolved disputes, 85.5% confirmed the original answer and only 14.5% reversed it over ~313 days. A dispute is mostly procedural, not a sign the result is wrong. Base-rate fact measured on-chain as of 2026-09-06, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json