Most UMA disputes confirm — they don't reverse
Of 451 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~313 days, only 13.5% reversed the original answer — 86.5% just confirmed it.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Flip rate | Confirm rate | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13.6% | 86.4% | 782 | |
| 13.6% | 86.4% | 780 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 772 | |
| 13.9% | 86.1% | 761 | |
| 14% | 86% | 759 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 754 | |
| 14.1% | 85.9% | 731 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 719 | |
| 14% | 86% | 714 | |
| 14% | 86% | 701 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 691 | |
| 14.3% | 85.7% | 687 | |
| 14.3% | 85.7% | 686 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 684 | |
| 14.4% | 85.6% | 674 | |
| 15.3% | 84.7% | 626 | |
| 15% | 85% | 621 | |
| 14.9% | 85.1% | 619 | |
| 14.6% | 85.4% | 608 | |
| 14.7% | 85.3% | 605 | |
| 14.6% | 85.4% | 602 | |
| 14.6% | 85.4% | 597 | |
| 14.9% | 85.1% | 590 | |
| 14.7% | 85.3% | 584 | |
| 14.5% | 85.5% | 580 | |
| 14.4% | 85.6% | 576 | |
| 14.2% | 85.8% | 562 | |
| 14.4% | 85.6% | 554 | |
| 14.1% | 85.9% | 545 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 534 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 531 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 534 | |
| 13.8% | 86.2% | 528 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 517 | |
| 14% | 86% | 507 | |
| 13.8% | 86.2% | 500 | |
| 13.2% | 86.8% | 492 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 473 | |
| 13.6% | 86.4% | 471 | |
| 13.4% | 86.6% | 469 | |
| 13.4% | 86.6% | 469 | |
| 13.5% | 86.5% | 460 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 453 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 453 | |
| 13.7% | 86.3% | 452 | |
| 13.5% | 86.5% | 451 |
Questions
When a Polymarket market is disputed at UMA, how often does the original answer get reversed?
Across 451 resolved disputes over ~313 days, only 13.5% reversed the original answer — 86.5% just confirmed it. Measured on-chain as of 2026-10-21, this is a base-rate fact, not a prediction of any single market. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
Is a UMA dispute on Polymarket a reliable signal that the outcome is wrong?
No — across 451 resolved disputes, 86.5% confirmed the original answer and only 13.5% reversed it over ~313 days. A dispute is mostly procedural, not a sign the result is wrong. Base-rate fact measured on-chain as of 2026-10-21, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json