Dispute rank and flip rank diverge by category
On Polymarket, dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders: Geopolitics disputes most but flips only 14.9%; Sports rarely disputes but flips 29.8% when it does.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Sports flip | Geopolitics flip | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.8% | 14.9% | 141 |
Questions
On Polymarket, does the category that disputes most also reverse most when disputed?
No — the two ranks diverge. The flip rates are measured on-chain (OOv2 disputes over ~313 days): Sports flips 29.8% of its 94 resolved disputes; Geopolitics flips only 14.9% of its 47. The dispute-rate ranking (Geopolitics disputes most, Sports least) is from a separate high-volume market-resolution scan, not the on-chain flip window. Base-rate facts as of 2026-07-18, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
Which Polymarket categories actually reverse when a dispute happens?
Flip-rate ranks opposite to dispute-rate. On-chain over ~313 days: Sports flips 29.8% across 94 resolved disputes while Geopolitics flips just 14.9% across 47. The dispute-rate ranking comes from a broader market-resolution scan with its own sample, so the two axes use different windows; the signal is the relative rank, not the isolated rate. Base-rate fact, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json