Dispute rank and flip rank diverge by category
On Polymarket, dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders: Geopolitics disputes most but flips only 5.6%; Sports rarely disputes but flips 37.3% when it does.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Sports flip | Geopolitics flip | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29.8% | 14.9% | 141 | |
| 29.5% | 14.9% | 142 | |
| 30.8% | 15.6% | 136 | |
| 30.8% | 16.3% | 134 | |
| 30.8% | 16.3% | 134 | |
| 31.1% | 17.5% | 130 | |
| 31.1% | 18.8% | 122 | |
| 31.1% | 20% | 120 | |
| 29.9% | 20% | 117 | |
| 28.2% | 20% | 115 | |
| 28.6% | 20% | 114 | |
| 28.9% | 20% | 113 | |
| 28.9% | 20% | 113 | |
| 28% | 20% | 112 | |
| 30.3% | 20% | 106 | |
| 31.5% | 17.2% | 102 | |
| 30.6% | 14.8% | 99 | |
| 30.6% | 14.8% | 99 | |
| 31% | 11.5% | 97 | |
| 31.9% | 11.5% | 95 | |
| 31.9% | 11.5% | 95 | |
| 31.9% | 8% | 94 | |
| 32.4% | 11.1% | 95 | |
| 32.8% | 11.1% | 94 | |
| 32.8% | 11.5% | 93 | |
| 32.8% | 11.5% | 93 | |
| 34.4% | 11.5% | 90 | |
| 35.5% | 12% | 87 | |
| 35.6% | 12% | 84 | |
| 33.9% | 12% | 81 | |
| 33.9% | 12% | 81 | |
| 33.9% | 12% | 81 | |
| 33.9% | 12.5% | 80 | |
| 35.2% | 8.7% | 77 | |
| 35.2% | 9.1% | 76 | |
| 35.8% | 9.1% | 75 | |
| 36.5% | 4.8% | 73 | |
| 37.3% | 4.8% | 72 | |
| 37.3% | 4.8% | 72 | |
| 37.3% | 5% | 71 | |
| 37.3% | 5% | 71 | |
| 37.3% | 5% | 71 | |
| 37.3% | 5.6% | 69 | |
| 37.3% | 5.6% | 69 | |
| 37.3% | 5.6% | 69 | |
| 37.3% | 5.6% | 69 |
Questions
On Polymarket, does the category that disputes most also reverse most when disputed?
No — the two ranks diverge. The flip rates are measured on-chain (OOv2 disputes over ~313 days): Sports flips 37.3% of its 51 resolved disputes; Geopolitics flips only 5.6% of its 18. The dispute-rate ranking (Geopolitics disputes most, Sports least) is from a separate high-volume market-resolution scan, not the on-chain flip window. Base-rate facts as of 2026-10-21, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
Which Polymarket categories actually reverse when a dispute happens?
Flip-rate ranks opposite to dispute-rate. On-chain over ~313 days: Sports flips 37.3% across 51 resolved disputes while Geopolitics flips just 5.6% across 18. The dispute-rate ranking comes from a broader market-resolution scan with its own sample, so the two axes use different windows; the signal is the relative rank, not the isolated rate. Base-rate fact, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json