Subjective criteria dispute far more than objective ones
On Polymarket, markets with a subjective resolution criterion dispute more than objective ones in both samples (high-volume: 27.7% vs 1.3%; chronological: 1.7% vs 0.5%). Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.
Measured history
| Measured as of | Subjective dispute (volume sample) | Objective dispute (volume sample) | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27.7% | 1.3% | 1522 |
Questions
Do subjective resolution criteria get disputed more than objective ones on Polymarket?
Yes, in both samples. In the high-volume sample, subjective markets disputed 27.7% (of 484) vs 1.3% for objective ones (of 1038); in the chronological sample, 1.7% vs 0.5%. The direction is the fact; the magnitude is sample-dependent. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-19, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
How much does resolution clarity change dispute risk on Polymarket?
Objective, checkable criteria dispute far less than subjective ones: 1.3% vs 27.7% in the high-volume sample (of 1038 and 484 markets), 0.5% vs 1.7% in the chronological one. Direction is robust across samples; magnitude is not. Descriptive base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-07-19, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json