Titles with no checkable threshold dispute far more
On Polymarket, markets whose title states no checkable threshold dispute more than those whose title does, in both samples (high-volume: 26.8% vs 1.4%; chronological: 0.7% vs 0.5%). Read from the title only; the resolution rules were not read. Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.
Measured history
| Measured as of | No threshold in title — dispute (volume sample) | Threshold in title — dispute (volume sample) | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1522 | |
| — | — | 1526 | |
| — | — | 1526 | |
| — | — | 1526 | |
| — | — | 1527 | |
| — | — | 1527 | |
| — | — | 1527 | |
| — | — | 1528 | |
| — | — | 1528 | |
| — | — | 1528 | |
| — | — | 1529 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1531 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1531 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1532 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1533 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.3% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 |
Questions
Do Polymarket markets whose title states no checkable threshold get disputed more?
Yes, in both samples. In the high-volume sample, markets whose title states no checkable threshold disputed 26.8% (of 497) vs 1.4% for those whose title does (of 1037); in the chronological sample, 0.7% vs 0.5%. This is read from the title alone — the resolution rules are not read, so a market resolved objectively but worded loosely counts as stating no threshold. The direction is the fact; the magnitude is sample-dependent. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-09-06, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
How much does the wording of the title change dispute risk on Polymarket?
Titles that state a checkable threshold dispute far less: 1.4% vs 26.8% in the high-volume sample (of 1037 and 497 markets), 0.5% vs 0.7% in the chronological one. Direction is robust across samples; magnitude is not. Descriptive base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-09-06, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json