Titles with no checkable threshold dispute far more
On Polymarket, markets whose title states no checkable threshold dispute more than those whose title does, in both samples (high-volume: 25.3% vs 1.3%; chronological: 0.6% vs 0.4%). Read from the title only; the resolution rules were not read. Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.
Measured history
| Measured as of | No threshold in title — dispute (volume sample) | Threshold in title — dispute (volume sample) | Sample (n) |
|---|---|---|---|
| — | — | 1522 | |
| — | — | 1526 | |
| — | — | 1526 | |
| — | — | 1526 | |
| — | — | 1527 | |
| — | — | 1527 | |
| — | — | 1527 | |
| — | — | 1528 | |
| — | — | 1528 | |
| — | — | 1528 | |
| — | — | 1529 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| — | — | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27.1% | 1.4% | 1530 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1531 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1531 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1532 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1533 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.9% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 27% | 1.3% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.8% | 1.4% | 1534 | |
| 26.2% | 1.4% | 1536 | |
| 26.2% | 1.4% | 1536 | |
| 26.2% | 1.4% | 1536 | |
| 26.2% | 1.4% | 1536 | |
| 26.2% | 1.4% | 1536 | |
| 26% | 1.4% | 1536 | |
| 26% | 1.3% | 1536 | |
| 26% | 1.3% | 1536 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.9% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1537 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1539 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1539 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1539 | |
| 25.7% | 1.3% | 1540 | |
| 25.7% | 1.3% | 1541 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1541 | |
| 25.8% | 1.3% | 1541 | |
| 25.6% | 1.3% | 1543 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1544 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1545 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1546 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1546 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1547 | |
| 25.1% | 1.3% | 1547 | |
| 25.3% | 1.3% | 1547 | |
| 25.3% | 1.3% | 1548 | |
| 25.3% | 1.3% | 1548 |
Questions
Do Polymarket markets whose title states no checkable threshold get disputed more?
Yes, in both samples. In the high-volume sample, markets whose title states no checkable threshold disputed 25.3% (of 513) vs 1.3% for those whose title does (of 1035); in the chronological sample, 0.6% vs 0.4%. This is read from the title alone — the resolution rules are not read, so a market resolved objectively but worded loosely counts as stating no threshold. The direction is the fact; the magnitude is sample-dependent. Base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-10-22, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json
How much does the wording of the title change dispute risk on Polymarket?
Titles that state a checkable threshold dispute far less: 1.3% vs 25.3% in the high-volume sample (of 1035 and 513 markets), 0.4% vs 0.6% in the chronological one. Direction is robust across samples; magnitude is not. Descriptive base-rate fact from UMA resolution records (Gamma) as of 2026-10-22, not a prediction. polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json