{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "name": "Resolution Watch",
  "description": "Evidence-bound Polymarket resolution, dispute, calibration and market-structure intelligence.",
  "canonicalUrl": "https://polym.uk",
  "alsoKnownAs": [
    "Polymarket Intelligence API",
    "Polymarket Intel",
    "Polymarket Flow Intelligence"
  ],
  "surfaces": [
    {
      "label": "Site",
      "url": "https://polym.uk",
      "what": "canonical living references, one URL per measured fact, with methodology and history"
    },
    {
      "label": "Dashboard and free artifacts",
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk",
      "what": "the published JSON the dashboard reads — free, keyless and CORS-open"
    },
    {
      "label": "API",
      "url": "https://api.polym.uk",
      "what": "paid routes over x402 (USDC on Base), plus free coverage and OpenAPI documents"
    }
  ],
  "discovery": {
    "llmsTxt": "https://polym.uk/llms.txt",
    "sitemap": "https://polym.uk/sitemap.xml",
    "robots": "https://polym.uk/robots.txt",
    "methodology": "https://polym.uk/methodology",
    "openapi": "https://api.polym.uk/openapi.json",
    "x402": "https://api.polym.uk/.well-known/x402"
  },
  "datasets": [
    "https://polym.uk/data/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk.json"
  ],
  "freeData": [
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/markets.json",
      "what": "the complete current snapshot of the decomposed market set: apparent volume, taker concentration, price band, Gamma book structure, dominant-flow wallet and resolution-risk context, per market",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/market-series.json",
      "what": "the hourly per-market series behind the sparklines",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/calibration.json",
      "what": "is Polymarket calibrated? The YES price 24h before close against the realised outcome, as a ten-bucket curve with a 95% Wilson interval per bucket, plus the Brier score and the favourite-longshot gap",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/uma-base-rates.json",
      "what": "UMA dispute base rates by category, in two samples published together because they disagree",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/uma-flip-rate.json",
      "what": "when a market is disputed at UMA, how often the answer reversed",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/live-disputes.json",
      "what": "markets that entered a UMA dispute in the recent window, each crossed with its category flip rate and a 95% Wilson interval",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/rules-changes.json",
      "what": "resolution rules that changed after the market opened, read from the UMA adapters' on-chain bulletin board on Polygon, with the vendor's own wording verbatim, the template composition that dominates any such window, and two money figures that are never added to each other",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/farming.json",
      "what": "per-wallet reward-program signals over the scanned window",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/storefront-demand.json",
      "what": "observed settlements against this product's own paid routes",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://dash.polym.uk/llms.txt",
      "what": "how to read the published artifacts, and the caveats that travel with them",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.polym.uk/coverage",
      "what": "what is and is not measured right now, with sample sizes",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.polym.uk/openapi.json",
      "what": "the full OpenAPI document: schemas, examples, routes",
      "price": "free"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://api.polym.uk/samples/screener",
      "what": "a fixed, non-live example of the screener response shape, so an agent can inspect it before paying",
      "price": "free"
    }
  ],
  "apis": [
    {
      "method": "GET",
      "urlTemplate": "https://api.polym.uk/resolution-risk",
      "description": "UMA resolution dispute and flip base rates by category and title checkability; descriptive historical base rates, not a market-specific forecast",
      "payment": {
        "protocol": "x402",
        "x402Version": 2,
        "network": "eip155:8453",
        "asset": "USDC",
        "assetContract": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
        "price": {
          "decimal": "$0.05",
          "atomic": "50000"
        },
        "payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
        "scheme": "exact",
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
      }
    },
    {
      "method": "GET",
      "urlTemplate": "https://api.polym.uk/resolution-watchlist",
      "description": "Live Polymarket markets ranked by structural UMA resolution base-rate signals, with flip risk kept as a separate conditional axis",
      "payment": {
        "protocol": "x402",
        "x402Version": 2,
        "network": "eip155:8453",
        "asset": "USDC",
        "assetContract": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
        "price": {
          "decimal": "$0.05",
          "atomic": "50000"
        },
        "payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
        "scheme": "exact",
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
      }
    },
    {
      "method": "GET",
      "urlTemplate": "https://api.polym.uk/market-authenticity/{conditionId}",
      "description": "Per-market taker-flow concentration, price-band structure, book compatibility and UMA resolution base-rate context; never a fraud verdict and never a prediction",
      "payment": {
        "protocol": "x402",
        "x402Version": 2,
        "network": "eip155:8453",
        "asset": "USDC",
        "assetContract": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
        "price": {
          "decimal": "$0.05",
          "atomic": "50000"
        },
        "payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
        "scheme": "exact",
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
      }
    },
    {
      "method": "GET",
      "urlTemplate": "https://api.polym.uk/screener",
      "description": "Ranked Polymarket market-flow screener with factual concentration and liquidity-compatibility fields for the observed window",
      "payment": {
        "protocol": "x402",
        "x402Version": 2,
        "network": "eip155:8453",
        "asset": "USDC",
        "assetContract": "0x833589fCD6eDb6E08f4c7C32D4f71b54bdA02913",
        "price": {
          "decimal": "$0.05",
          "atomic": "50000"
        },
        "payTo": "0x7b13107779CfDA1bEba3289d0Fbe27310436f3E3",
        "scheme": "exact",
        "maxTimeoutSeconds": 300
      }
    }
  ],
  "resources": [
    {
      "kind": "reference",
      "title": "Titles with no checkable threshold dispute far more — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "On Polymarket, markets whose title states no checkable threshold dispute more than those whose title does, in both samples (high-volume: 25.3% vs 1.3%; chronological: 0.7% vs 0.4%). Read from the title only; the resolution rules were not read. Direction is the fact; magnitude is sample-dependent.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/reference/criterion-clarity"
    },
    {
      "kind": "reference",
      "title": "Dispute rank and flip rank diverge by category — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "On Polymarket, dispute-rate and flip-rate rank categories in opposite orders: Geopolitics disputes most but flips only 5.6%; Sports rarely disputes but flips 36% when it does.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/reference/dispute-vs-flip"
    },
    {
      "kind": "reference",
      "title": "Most UMA disputes confirm — they don't reverse — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "Of 448 resolved Polymarket UMA disputes over ~313 days, only 13.2% reversed the original answer — 86.8% just confirmed it.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/reference/flip-rate"
    },
    {
      "kind": "reference",
      "title": "A UMA dispute locks capital ~5 days, whatever the category — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "When disputed at UMA, a Polymarket market runs about two resolution cycles regardless of category — an estimated 103–120 hours locked at UMA",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/reference/resolution-lockup"
    },
    {
      "kind": "reference",
      "title": "Did a Polymarket market's rules change after you bet? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "Yes, and it is measurable: over the 90 days ending 2026-09-01, 13,436 rule-change events were read on-chain across 11,930 distinct Polymarket questions and 350 distinct texts, and 8,957 of those questions carry at least one edit outside the boilerplate clarification — a floor, not a census, because 20 of 519 block chunks failed to read.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/reference/rules-changes"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "Do Polymarket markets whose title states no checkable threshold attract more disputes? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/do-polymarket-markets-whose-title-states-no-checkable-threshold-attract-more-disputes-290376eb"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "Do the Polymarket categories that dispute most also flip most? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/do-the-polymarket-categories-that-dispute-most-also-flip-most-c317dcd1"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "Do the Polymarket categories that dispute most also flip most? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from the latest validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/do-the-polymarket-categories-that-dispute-most-also-flip-most-c94f53d3"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "How long can capital remain locked when a Polymarket market is disputed? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/how-long-can-capital-remain-locked-when-a-polymarket-market-is-disputed-133d7d33"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "How long can capital remain locked when a Polymarket market is disputed? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/how-long-can-capital-remain-locked-when-a-polymarket-market-is-disputed-2a1ba5de"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "How often do resolved Polymarket UMA disputes reverse the original answer? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/how-often-do-resolved-polymarket-uma-disputes-reverse-the-original-answer-624e32c3"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "How often do resolved Polymarket UMA disputes reverse the original answer? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from the latest validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/how-often-do-resolved-polymarket-uma-disputes-reverse-the-original-answer-850673a0"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "How should an agent evaluate Polymarket calibration data? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/how-should-an-agent-evaluate-polymarket-calibration-data-be62d108"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "How well calibrated is Polymarket 24 hours before resolution? — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "An evidence-bound answer built from a validated measurement and its declared limits.",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/how-well-calibrated-is-polymarket-24-hours-before-resolution-c1d666b2"
    },
    {
      "kind": "article",
      "title": "When Polymarket disputes a UMA resolution, the result almost never changes — Resolution Watch",
      "description": "On-chain measurement of Polymarket",
      "url": "https://polym.uk/blog/polymarket-uma-resolution-risk"
    }
  ],
  "citationPolicy": {
    "requiredContext": [
      "canonicalUrl",
      "measuredDate",
      "sample",
      "caveat"
    ],
    "prohibitedUses": [
      "unsupported forecast",
      "unsupported accusation",
      "unbounded generalization"
    ]
  }
}